玉米期货价格持续下调 中储粮政策影响市场

近期玉米期货市场呈现下行趋势，主要受全球供需格局变化和国内政策调整的共同影响。据 USDA 最新供需报告显示，全球玉米期末库存有所下调，同时中国玉米进口量预期减少。这些变化对国际市场和国内市场均带来了显著影响，导致玉米期货价格持续波动。

domestically, the situation is equally dynamic. China’s corn production for 2024 has shown an increase, reaching 29491.7 million tons, a 2.1% rise compared to the previous year. This growth, however, is being somewhat offset by changes in state grain reserve operations. The Central Storage Grain (C谷) has been implementing a bidirectional rotation strategy, where both buying and selling activities are being closely monitored. Recent data indicates that despite an increase in rotation volume, the ratio of purchase to sale remains skewed toward purchase, contributing to ongoing price pressures.

Import figures also reveal notable trends. China’s corn imports for the first two months of the year fell significantly, declining by 97.1% compared to the same period last year. This sharp reduction is believed to be partly due to tighter domestic supply, as highlighted by the ongoing reduction in grain stockpiles across the东北region. Notably, local grain reserves, including natural dry grain, are now reported to be below 20% of previous levels, exacerbating supply concerns.

In terms of pricing, the most telling indicator is the recent performance of corn futures contracts. On March 18, CBOT corn May合约 closed at 457.75美分, while the Dalian corn May contract dropped below the 2300 yuan per ton mark. This downward movement has been accompanied by a narrowing basis, reflecting weaker near-term prospects. Market participants are being advised to focus on the July合约, which is also showing signs of weakness, though there is a caution against speculative short positions at this stage.

Despite these challenges, expert analysis suggests that this may be an opportune moment for strategic positioning. The current market dynamics present both risks and opportunities, particularly in light of the ongoing adjustments in grain reserve operations and the shifting import/export landscape. Investors are urged to remain vigilant and consider a diversified approach, aligning their strategies with the evolving market signals.

【财醒来点评】: 当前玉米市场面临多重因素共振，建议投资者密切关注全球玉米供需变化和国内政策调整，尤其是中储粮的轮换操作和进口数据。尽管短期内价格可能承压，但考虑到国内产量的增长和库存调整，长期来看市场仍有支撑。投资者应根据自身风险承受能力，合理配置资产，避免盲目跟风。在操作上，建议保持定力，以中长期视角布局，同时严格设置止损止盈，防范市场波动风险。