多重因素助力 沪铜期货价格或将继续上行

本周 electroly copper prices saw an increase of 1960 yuan per ton compared to last week. The消息面上， the risk of US tariffs eased as Trump delayed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, leading to a decline in the dollar index while the copper tariff issue continued to发酵, boosting the联动 of domestic and foreign copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply tension in the copper mine market has intensified, with TC持续 declining and spot cash smelters facing increased losses, further supporting the mid-term outlook for copper prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has seen a reduction this week.综合来看， it is expected that next week’s spot copper prices will remain at a high level, with potential upward movement after a short-term adjustment, with the Fobank spot copper range at 77,500-80,000 yuan per ton and the Fobank bright copper range at 71,000-72,700 yuan per ton.

【财醒来点评】：从当前市场情况来看，多重因素共同作用下，铜价短期内仍有上涨动力。首先，全球货币政策宽松预期持续支撑有色金属板块，尤其是铜作为经济指标金属，其价格走势往往与宏观经济紧密相关。其次，铜矿供应紧张局面预计短期内难以缓解，TC的持续走低和冶炼厂的亏损状况也在支撑铜价的中期走势。再次，尽管现货市场去库存化进程有所放缓，但整体供需平衡并未明显改变。综合来看，预计下周铜价将继续保持高位运行，投资者可关注库存变动和政策面变化，建议在价格回调时择机建仓，中长期维持看涨策略，但需警惕中美贸易摩擦升级和货币政策转向可能带来的系统性风险。