巴西糖产量持续下降 乙醇产量逆势增长，或引发白糖期货价格波动

According to recent data from Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA), sugar production in the country’s main sugarcane-producing region, the Central-Southern region, has continued to decline, while ethanol production has increased. As of February 1, 2025, the total sugar production in the region dropped by 5.52% year-on-year to 39.805 million tons, with ethanol production rising by 3.43% year-on-year to 33.192 billion liters. Notably, in the first half of January 2025, sugarcane crushing in the region plummeted by 66.28% year-on-year to just 23.9 million tons, while ethanol production surged by 28.47% year-on-year to 4.02 billion liters despite the sharp decline in sugarcane supply.

The data reveals a significant shift in the allocation of sugarcane use, with the proportion of sugarcane used for ethanol production rising to 51.85%, up from 50.95% the previous season. This trend suggests that Brazilian sugar mills are increasingly prioritizing ethanol production, particularly during the latter stages of the sugarcane harvest season. This shift could have significant implications for global sugar markets, as Brazil is the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter.

The steady decline in sugar production and the simultaneous increase in ethanol production could lead to tighter global sugar supplies and potentially higher sugar prices. Investors should closely monitor these developments, as they may impact the price of白糖期货 (sugar futures) in global markets. Additionally, the sustained growth in ethanol production indicates strong demand in Brazil’s domestic ethanol market, which could further influence the country’s sugar industry dynamics.

【财醒来点评】：当前巴西糖产量持续下滑趋势明显，而乙醇产量逆势增长，显示出行业结构正在发生深刻变化。对于白糖期货投资者而言，应警惕全球白糖供应潜在收紧的风险，同时关注乙醇市场的动态及其对糖价的支撑作用。建议投资者保持对巴西天气、政策和糖厂生产策略的敏感度，合理调整投资组合，控制风险。中期来看，若糖价维持强势，可能带动相关企业收益提升，建议适时布局白糖期货多头头寸，但需密切关注全球供需平衡变化和替代能源政策调整。