Brazil’s Soybean Meal Price Breaks Historical Record, Argentine Supply Advantages Diminish

In a significant development for the global soybean meal market, Brazilian soybean meal export prices surged above those of Argentine soybean meal for the first time since last November. This shift has raised concerns among market participants about potential supply constraints in the near term. The price disparity is attributed to delayed soybean harvests in Brazil, impacting its ability to meet export demands. On February 6th, soybean meal prices at the Brazilian port of Paranaiba for March shipments reached USD 333.34 per ton, while Argentine exports from the Upper River region were priced at USD 332.23 per ton, marking the first time since November 22, 2024, that Brazilian prices have surpassed those of Argentina. At that time, January 2025 shipments from Paranaiba had been priced at USD 330.14 per ton, compared to USD 329.04 per ton for Argentine exports. This development underscores the evolving dynamics in global soybean meal trade, where supply chain efficiencies and harvest schedules play a critical role in determining market leadership.

【财醒来点评】：巴西豆粕价格的历史性突破反映了全球农产品市场的深刻变革。这一价格逆转不仅揭示了巴西物流能力对国际市场的影响，也警示我们阿根廷在传统价格优势削弱下的供应链调整需求。投资者应关注物流恢复进度对全球大豆压榨格局的重塑，以及主要出口国的政策导向将成为影响豆粕期货价格的核心因素。建议投资者短期内需警惕全球大豆压榨产能的区域分布风险，关注美国大豆压榨的潜在替代效应，以及如何平衡风险与收益的策略调整。